First results
Tested on a live estate with fifteen injected failures.
GridCast is an open reference estate we built: a demand-forecasting system on Kubernetes with Prometheus, Loki, Tempo, Prefect and PostgreSQL. We broke it fifteen ways and asked each system to find the cause of the same frozen incident.
15failures injected through releases, config, vendors and data
25 / 28runs where Lumis named the right component and mechanism
7 / 8on the hard, silent faults, against 2 / 8 for one model call
How it was measured, and what went wrong →Correct root cause (component and mechanism)
Same model, DeepSeek v4 pro, for every model-based system. 28 runs each.
A model given only the alert0.04
The same model plus the service graph0.18
One model call with curated evidence0.54
Lumis: triage, investigator, assessment0.89
A proof of concept, not a benchmark: one synthetic estate written by our team, one model, two runs per system per scenario. One scenario is excluded after we found a ground-truth leak. Full research notes ↗